Dream Horse Enhancement Chances were revealed in a patch on 17th June 2020.
Everyone starts with a 1% chance of success. Each additional failure adds an additional 0.2% to the Enhancement Chance.
*cries*
Attempt | Enhancement Chance |
---|---|
1 | 1.0% |
2 | 1.2% |
3 | 1.4% |
4 | 1.6% |
5 | 1.8% |
6 | 2.0% |
7 | 2.2% |
8 | 2.4% |
9 | 2.6% |
10 | 2.8% |
11 | 3.0% |
12 | 3.2% |
13 | 3.4% |
14 | 3.6% |
15 | 3.8% |
16 | 4.0% |
17 | 4.2% |
18 | 4.4% |
19 | 4.6% |
20 | 4.8% |
21 | 5.0% |
22 | 5.2% |
23 | 5.4% |
24 | 5.6% |
25 | 5.8% |
26 | 6.0% |
27 | 6.2% |
28 | 6.4% |
29 | 6.6% |
30 | 6.8% |
31 | 7.0% |
32 | 7.2% |
33 | 7.4% |
34 | 7.6% |
35 | 7.8% |
36 | 8.0% |
37 | 8.2% |
38 | 8.4% |
39 | 8.6% |
40 | 8.8% |
41 | 9.0% |
42 | 9.2% |
43 | 9.4% |
44 | 9.6% |
45 | 9.8% |
46 | 10.0% |
47 | 10.2% |
48 | 10.4% |
49 | 10.6% |
50 | 10.8% |
51 | 11.0% |
52 | 11.2% |
53 | 11.4% |
54 | 11.6% |
55 | 11.8% |
56 | 12.0% |
57 | 12.2% |
58 | 12.4% |
59 | 12.6% |
60 | 12.8% |
61 | 13.0% |
62 | 13.2% |
63 | 13.4% |
64 | 13.6% |
65 | 13.8% |
66 | 14.0% |
67 | 14.2% |
68 | 14.4% |
69 | 14.6% |
70 | 14.8% |
71 | 15.0% |
72 | 15.2% |
73 | 15.4% |
74 | 15.6% |
75 | 15.8% |
76 | 16.0% |
77 | 16.2% |
78 | 16.4% |
79 | 16.6% |
80 | 16.8% |
81 | 17.0% |
82 | 17.2% |
83 | 17.4% |
84 | 17.6% |
85 | 17.8% |
86 | 18.0% |
87 | 18.2% |
88 | 18.4% |
89 | 18.6% |
90 | 18.8% |
91 | 19.0% |
92 | 19.2% |
93 | 19.4% |
94 | 19.6% |
95 | 19.8% |
96 | 20.0% |
97 | 20.2% |
98 | 20.4% |
99 | 20.6% |
100 | 20.8% |

The “Current Success Rate” of upgrading a Courser to a Dream Horse looks very dim indeed!
If you are like most, you will probably obtain your Dream Horse at around a Failstack of 20. (Failstack = Increase Awakening Rate + 1)
According to one player’s math, 50% will obtain a Dream Horse before obtaining a failstack of 21. (Having a “Current Success Rate” of 5.2% and having failed at enhancement 21 times.)
Read details below.
Dream Horse Silver Cost Analysis
Do you have a few billion silver jingling around in yor pockets and feel lucky much? Time to obtain a dream horse!
Big thank you to u/Exvaris, who posted the following dream horse data in reddit. Read source reddit post.
Attempt # | Cost in Mats | Cost in Crons | Total Cost of Attempt | Cumulative Cost | Success Chance | Failure Chance | Cumulative Fail Chance | Cumulative Success Chance |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 500,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 600,000,000 | 600,000,000 | 1.0% | 99.0% | 99.0% | 1.0% |
2 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 950,000,000 | 1.2% | 98.8% | 97.8% | 2.2% |
3 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 1,300,000,000 | 1.4% | 98.6% | 96.4% | 3.6% |
4 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 1,650,000,000 | 1.6% | 98.4% | 94.9% | 5.1% |
5 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 2,000,000,000 | 1.8% | 98.2% | 93.2% | 6.8% |
6 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 2,350,000,000 | 2.0% | 98.0% | 91.3% | 8.7% |
7 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 2,700,000,000 | 2.2% | 97.8% | 89.3% | 10.7% |
8 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 3,050,000,000 | 2.4% | 97.6% | 87.2% | 12.8% |
9 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 3,400,000,000 | 2.6% | 97.4% | 84.9% | 15.1% |
10 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 3,750,000,000 | 2.8% | 97.2% | 82.5% | 17.5% |
11 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 4,100,000,000 | 3.0% | 97.0% | 80.1% | 19.9% |
12 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 4,450,000,000 | 3.2% | 96.8% | 77.5% | 22.5% |
13 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 4,800,000,000 | 3.4% | 96.6% | 74.9% | 25.1% |
14 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 5,150,000,000 | 3.6% | 96.4% | 72.2% | 27.8% |
15 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 5,500,000,000 | 3.8% | 96.2% | 69.4% | 30.6% |
16 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 5,850,000,000 | 4.0% | 96.0% | 66.6% | 33.4% |
17 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 6,200,000,000 | 4.2% | 95.8% | 63.8% | 36.2% |
18 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 6,550,000,000 | 4.4% | 95.6% | 61.0% | 39.0% |
19 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 6,900,000,000 | 4.6% | 95.4% | 58.2% | 41.8% |
20 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 7,250,000,000 | 4.8% | 95.2% | 55.4% | 44.6% |
21 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 7,600,000,000 | 5.0% | 95.0% | 52.7% | 47.3% |
22 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 7,950,000,000 | 5.2% | 94.8% | 49.9% | 50.1% |
23 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 8,300,000,000 | 5.4% | 94.6% | 47.2% | 52.8% |
24 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 8,650,000,000 | 5.6% | 94.4% | 44.6% | 55.4% |
25 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 9,000,000,000 | 5.8% | 94.2% | 42.0% | 58.0% |
26 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 9,350,000,000 | 6.0% | 94.0% | 39.5% | 60.5% |
27 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 9,700,000,000 | 6.2% | 93.8% | 37.0% | 63.0% |
28 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 10,050,000,000 | 6.4% | 93.6% | 34.7% | 65.3% |
29 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 10,400,000,000 | 6.6% | 93.4% | 32.4% | 67.6% |
30 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 10,750,000,000 | 6.8% | 93.2% | 30.2% | 69.8% |
31 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 11,100,000,000 | 7.0% | 93.0% | 28.1% | 71.9% |
32 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 11,450,000,000 | 7.2% | 92.8% | 26.0% | 74.0% |
33 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 11,800,000,000 | 7.4% | 92.6% | 24.1% | 75.9% |
34 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 12,150,000,000 | 7.6% | 92.4% | 22.3% | 77.7% |
35 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 12,500,000,000 | 7.8% | 92.2% | 20.5% | 79.5% |
36 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 12,850,000,000 | 8.0% | 92.0% | 18.9% | 81.1% |
37 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 13,200,000,000 | 8.2% | 91.8% | 17.3% | 82.7% |
38 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 13,550,000,000 | 8.4% | 91.6% | 15.9% | 84.1% |
39 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 13,900,000,000 | 8.6% | 91.4% | 14.5% | 85.5% |
40 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 14,250,000,000 | 8.8% | 91.2% | 13.2% | 86.8% |
41 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 14,600,000,000 | 9.0% | 91.0% | 12.1% | 87.9% |
42 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 14,950,000,000 | 9.2% | 90.8% | 10.9% | 89.1% |
43 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 15,300,000,000 | 9.4% | 90.6% | 9.9% | 90.1% |
44 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 15,650,000,000 | 9.6% | 90.4% | 9.0% | 91.0% |
45 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 16,000,000,000 | 9.8% | 90.2% | 8.1% | 91.9% |
46 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 16,350,000,000 | 10.0% | 90.0% | 7.3% | 92.7% |
47 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 16,700,000,000 | 10.2% | 89.8% | 6.5% | 93.5% |
48 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 17,050,000,000 | 10.4% | 89.6% | 5.9% | 94.1% |
49 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 17,400,000,000 | 10.6% | 89.4% | 5.2% | 94.8% |
50 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 17,750,000,000 | 10.8% | 89.2% | 4.7% | 95.3% |
51 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 18,100,000,000 | 11.0% | 89.0% | 4.2% | 95.8% |
52 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 18,450,000,000 | 11.2% | 88.8% | 3.7% | 96.3% |
53 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 18,800,000,000 | 11.4% | 88.6% | 3.3% | 96.7% |
54 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 19,150,000,000 | 11.6% | 88.4% | 2.9% | 97.1% |
55 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 19,500,000,000 | 11.8% | 88.2% | 2.5% | 97.5% |
56 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 19,850,000,000 | 12.0% | 88.0% | 2.2% | 97.8% |
57 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 20,200,000,000 | 12.2% | 87.8% | 2.0% | 98.0% |
58 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 20,550,000,000 | 12.4% | 87.6% | 1.7% | 98.3% |
59 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 20,900,000,000 | 12.6% | 87.4% | 1.5% | 98.5% |
60 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 21,250,000,000 | 12.8% | 87.2% | 1.3% | 98.7% |
61 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 21,600,000,000 | 13.0% | 87.0% | 1.1% | 98.9% |
62 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 21,950,000,000 | 13.2% | 86.8% | 1.0% | 99.0% |
63 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 22,300,000,000 | 13.4% | 86.6% | 0.9% | 99.1% |
64 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 22,650,000,000 | 13.6% | 86.4% | 0.7% | 99.3% |
65 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 23,000,000,000 | 13.8% | 86.2% | 0.6% | 99.4% |
66 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 23,350,000,000 | 14.0% | 86.0% | 0.6% | 99.4% |
67 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 23,700,000,000 | 14.2% | 85.8% | 0.5% | 99.5% |
68 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 24,050,000,000 | 14.4% | 85.6% | 0.4% | 99.6% |
69 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 24,400,000,000 | 14.6% | 85.4% | 0.3% | 99.7% |
70 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 24,750,000,000 | 14.8% | 85.2% | 0.3% | 99.7% |
71 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 25,100,000,000 | 15.0% | 85.0% | 0.3% | 99.7% |
72 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 25,450,000,000 | 15.2% | 84.8% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
73 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 25,800,000,000 | 15.4% | 84.6% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
74 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 26,150,000,000 | 15.6% | 84.4% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
75 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 26,500,000,000 | 15.8% | 84.2% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
76 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 26,850,000,000 | 16.0% | 84.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
77 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 27,200,000,000 | 16.2% | 83.8% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
78 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 27,550,000,000 | 16.4% | 83.6% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
79 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 27,900,000,000 | 16.6% | 83.4% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
80 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 28,250,000,000 | 16.8% | 83.2% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
81 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 28,600,000,000 | 17.0% | 83.0% | 0.04% | 99.96% |
82 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 28,950,000,000 | 17.2% | 82.8% | 0.04% | 99.96% |
83 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 29,300,000,000 | 17.4% | 82.6% | 0.03% | 99.97% |
84 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 29,650,000,000 | 17.6% | 82.4% | 0.02% | 99.98% |
85 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 30,000,000,000 | 17.8% | 82.2% | 0.02% | 99.98% |
86 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 30,350,000,000 | 18.0% | 82.0% | 0.02% | 99.98% |
87 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 30,700,000,000 | 18.2% | 81.8% | 0.01% | 99.99% |
88 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 31,050,000,000 | 18.4% | 81.6% | 0.01% | 99.99% |
89 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 31,400,000,000 | 18.6% | 81.4% | 0.01% | 99.99% |
90 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 31,750,000,000 | 18.8% | 81.2% | 0.01% | 99.99% |
91 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 32,100,000,000 | 19.0% | 81.0% | 0.01% | 99.99% |
92 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 32,450,000,000 | 19.2% | 80.8% | 0.005% | 99.995% |
93 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 32,800,000,000 | 19.4% | 80.6% | 0.004% | 99.996% |
94 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 33,150,000,000 | 19.6% | 80.4% | 0.003% | 99.997% |
95 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 33,500,000,000 | 19.8% | 80.2% | 0.002% | 99.998% |
96 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 33,850,000,000 | 20.0% | 80.0% | 0.002% | 99.998% |
97 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 34,200,000,000 | 20.2% | 79.8% | 0.002% | 99.998% |
98 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 34,550,000,000 | 20.4% | 79.6% | 0.001% | 99.999% |
99 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 34,900,000,000 | 20.6% | 79.4% | 0.001% | 99.999% |
100 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 35,250,000,000 | 20.8% | 79.2% | 0.001% | 99.999% |
QUOTED CHART NOTES:
You should always use Cron Stones for your Dream horse attempts.
Do not buy Cron Stones from a blacksmith; extract them from costumes.
This chart assumes you only use mats up to 100% towards any Dream horse.
– This is because mats are 1 to 1% up until 100%, but only 1 to 0.5% after
Chart doesn’t include the cost of Krogdalo’s Origin Stone
– This would add about 2.5m-3m per attempt if you want to be super accurate
Chart assumes all mats are bought with silver, including costumes for crons.
– Your actual silver cost will be lower if you obtain any of the mats yourself
<- About half of all players will succeed by attempt # 22
This is also about how much it costs to buy a level 1 dream horse
Additional Info & Resources
- Featured image credit: thank you Rose from Discord! (Natalia#1022)
- patch notes source
- Exvaris reddit post and chart