Dream Horse Enhancement Chances were revealed in a patch on 17th June 2020.

Everyone starts with a 1% chance of success. Each additional failure adds an additional 0.2% to the Enhancement Chance.

*cries*

Attempt Enhancement Chance
1 1.0%
2 1.2%
3 1.4%
4 1.6%
5 1.8%
6 2.0%
7 2.2%
8 2.4%
9 2.6%
10 2.8%
11 3.0%
12 3.2%
13 3.4%
14 3.6%
15 3.8%
16 4.0%
17 4.2%
18 4.4%
19 4.6%
20 4.8%
21 5.0%
22 5.2%
23 5.4%
24 5.6%
25 5.8%
26 6.0%
27 6.2%
28 6.4%
29 6.6%
30 6.8%
31 7.0%
32 7.2%
33 7.4%
34 7.6%
35 7.8%
36 8.0%
37 8.2%
38 8.4%
39 8.6%
40 8.8%
41 9.0%
42 9.2%
43 9.4%
44 9.6%
45 9.8%
46 10.0%
47 10.2%
48 10.4%
49 10.6%
50 10.8%
51 11.0%
52 11.2%
53 11.4%
54 11.6%
55 11.8%
56 12.0%
57 12.2%
58 12.4%
59 12.6%
60 12.8%
61 13.0%
62 13.2%
63 13.4%
64 13.6%
65 13.8%
66 14.0%
67 14.2%
68 14.4%
69 14.6%
70 14.8%
71 15.0%
72 15.2%
73 15.4%
74 15.6%
75 15.8%
76 16.0%
77 16.2%
78 16.4%
79 16.6%
80 16.8%
81 17.0%
82 17.2%
83 17.4%
84 17.6%
85 17.8%
86 18.0%
87 18.2%
88 18.4%
89 18.6%
90 18.8%
91 19.0%
92 19.2%
93 19.4%
94 19.6%
95 19.8%
96 20.0%
97 20.2%
98 20.4%
99 20.6%
100 20.8%

The “Current Success Rate” of upgrading a Courser to a Dream Horse looks very dim indeed!

If you are like most, you will probably obtain your Dream Horse at around a Failstack of 20. (Failstack = Increase Awakening Rate + 1)

According to one player’s math, 50% will obtain a Dream Horse before obtaining a failstack of 21. (Having a “Current Success Rate” of 5.2% and having failed at enhancement 21 times.)

Read details below.

 

Dream Horse Silver Cost Analysis

Do you have a few billion silver jingling around in yor pockets and feel lucky much? Time to obtain a dream horse!

 

Big thank you to u/Exvaris, who posted the following dream horse data in reddit. Read source reddit post.

Attempt # Cost in Mats Cost in Crons Total Cost of Attempt Cumulative Cost Success Chance Failure Chance Cumulative Fail Chance Cumulative Success Chance
1 500,000,000 100,000,000 600,000,000 600,000,000 1.0% 99.0% 99.0% 1.0%
2 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 950,000,000 1.2% 98.8% 97.8% 2.2%
3 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 1,300,000,000 1.4% 98.6% 96.4% 3.6%
4 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 1,650,000,000 1.6% 98.4% 94.9% 5.1%
5 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 2,000,000,000 1.8% 98.2% 93.2% 6.8%
6 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 2,350,000,000 2.0% 98.0% 91.3% 8.7%
7 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 2,700,000,000 2.2% 97.8% 89.3% 10.7%
8 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 3,050,000,000 2.4% 97.6% 87.2% 12.8%
9 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 3,400,000,000 2.6% 97.4% 84.9% 15.1%
10 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 3,750,000,000 2.8% 97.2% 82.5% 17.5%
11 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 4,100,000,000 3.0% 97.0% 80.1% 19.9%
12 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 4,450,000,000 3.2% 96.8% 77.5% 22.5%
13 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 4,800,000,000 3.4% 96.6% 74.9% 25.1%
14 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 5,150,000,000 3.6% 96.4% 72.2% 27.8%
15 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 5,500,000,000 3.8% 96.2% 69.4% 30.6%
16 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 5,850,000,000 4.0% 96.0% 66.6% 33.4%
17 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 6,200,000,000 4.2% 95.8% 63.8% 36.2%
18 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 6,550,000,000 4.4% 95.6% 61.0% 39.0%
19 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 6,900,000,000 4.6% 95.4% 58.2% 41.8%
20 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 7,250,000,000 4.8% 95.2% 55.4% 44.6%
21 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 7,600,000,000 5.0% 95.0% 52.7% 47.3%
22 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 7,950,000,000 5.2% 94.8% 49.9% 50.1%
23 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 8,300,000,000 5.4% 94.6% 47.2% 52.8%
24 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 8,650,000,000 5.6% 94.4% 44.6% 55.4%
25 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 9,000,000,000 5.8% 94.2% 42.0% 58.0%
26 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 9,350,000,000 6.0% 94.0% 39.5% 60.5%
27 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 9,700,000,000 6.2% 93.8% 37.0% 63.0%
28 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 10,050,000,000 6.4% 93.6% 34.7% 65.3%
29 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 10,400,000,000 6.6% 93.4% 32.4% 67.6%
30 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 10,750,000,000 6.8% 93.2% 30.2% 69.8%
31 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 11,100,000,000 7.0% 93.0% 28.1% 71.9%
32 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 11,450,000,000 7.2% 92.8% 26.0% 74.0%
33 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 11,800,000,000 7.4% 92.6% 24.1% 75.9%
34 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 12,150,000,000 7.6% 92.4% 22.3% 77.7%
35 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 12,500,000,000 7.8% 92.2% 20.5% 79.5%
36 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 12,850,000,000 8.0% 92.0% 18.9% 81.1%
37 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 13,200,000,000 8.2% 91.8% 17.3% 82.7%
38 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 13,550,000,000 8.4% 91.6% 15.9% 84.1%
39 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 13,900,000,000 8.6% 91.4% 14.5% 85.5%
40 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 14,250,000,000 8.8% 91.2% 13.2% 86.8%
41 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 14,600,000,000 9.0% 91.0% 12.1% 87.9%
42 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 14,950,000,000 9.2% 90.8% 10.9% 89.1%
43 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 15,300,000,000 9.4% 90.6% 9.9% 90.1%
44 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 15,650,000,000 9.6% 90.4% 9.0% 91.0%
45 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 16,000,000,000 9.8% 90.2% 8.1% 91.9%
46 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 16,350,000,000 10.0% 90.0% 7.3% 92.7%
47 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 16,700,000,000 10.2% 89.8% 6.5% 93.5%
48 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 17,050,000,000 10.4% 89.6% 5.9% 94.1%
49 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 17,400,000,000 10.6% 89.4% 5.2% 94.8%
50 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 17,750,000,000 10.8% 89.2% 4.7% 95.3%
51 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 18,100,000,000 11.0% 89.0% 4.2% 95.8%
52 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 18,450,000,000 11.2% 88.8% 3.7% 96.3%
53 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 18,800,000,000 11.4% 88.6% 3.3% 96.7%
54 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 19,150,000,000 11.6% 88.4% 2.9% 97.1%
55 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 19,500,000,000 11.8% 88.2% 2.5% 97.5%
56 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 19,850,000,000 12.0% 88.0% 2.2% 97.8%
57 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 20,200,000,000 12.2% 87.8% 2.0% 98.0%
58 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 20,550,000,000 12.4% 87.6% 1.7% 98.3%
59 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 20,900,000,000 12.6% 87.4% 1.5% 98.5%
60 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 21,250,000,000 12.8% 87.2% 1.3% 98.7%
61 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 21,600,000,000 13.0% 87.0% 1.1% 98.9%
62 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 21,950,000,000 13.2% 86.8% 1.0% 99.0%
63 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 22,300,000,000 13.4% 86.6% 0.9% 99.1%
64 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 22,650,000,000 13.6% 86.4% 0.7% 99.3%
65 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 23,000,000,000 13.8% 86.2% 0.6% 99.4%
66 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 23,350,000,000 14.0% 86.0% 0.6% 99.4%
67 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 23,700,000,000 14.2% 85.8% 0.5% 99.5%
68 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 24,050,000,000 14.4% 85.6% 0.4% 99.6%
69 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 24,400,000,000 14.6% 85.4% 0.3% 99.7%
70 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 24,750,000,000 14.8% 85.2% 0.3% 99.7%
71 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 25,100,000,000 15.0% 85.0% 0.3% 99.7%
72 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 25,450,000,000 15.2% 84.8% 0.2% 99.8%
73 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 25,800,000,000 15.4% 84.6% 0.2% 99.8%
74 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 26,150,000,000 15.6% 84.4% 0.2% 99.8%
75 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 26,500,000,000 15.8% 84.2% 0.1% 99.9%
76 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 26,850,000,000 16.0% 84.0% 0.1% 99.9%
77 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 27,200,000,000 16.2% 83.8% 0.1% 99.9%
78 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 27,550,000,000 16.4% 83.6% 0.1% 99.9%
79 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 27,900,000,000 16.6% 83.4% 0.1% 99.9%
80 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 28,250,000,000 16.8% 83.2% 0.1% 99.9%
81 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 28,600,000,000 17.0% 83.0% 0.04% 99.96%
82 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 28,950,000,000 17.2% 82.8% 0.04% 99.96%
83 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 29,300,000,000 17.4% 82.6% 0.03% 99.97%
84 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 29,650,000,000 17.6% 82.4% 0.02% 99.98%
85 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 30,000,000,000 17.8% 82.2% 0.02% 99.98%
86 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 30,350,000,000 18.0% 82.0% 0.02% 99.98%
87 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 30,700,000,000 18.2% 81.8% 0.01% 99.99%
88 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 31,050,000,000 18.4% 81.6% 0.01% 99.99%
89 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 31,400,000,000 18.6% 81.4% 0.01% 99.99%
90 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 31,750,000,000 18.8% 81.2% 0.01% 99.99%
91 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 32,100,000,000 19.0% 81.0% 0.01% 99.99%
92 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 32,450,000,000 19.2% 80.8% 0.005% 99.995%
93 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 32,800,000,000 19.4% 80.6% 0.004% 99.996%
94 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 33,150,000,000 19.6% 80.4% 0.003% 99.997%
95 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 33,500,000,000 19.8% 80.2% 0.002% 99.998%
96 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 33,850,000,000 20.0% 80.0% 0.002% 99.998%
97 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 34,200,000,000 20.2% 79.8% 0.002% 99.998%
98 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 34,550,000,000 20.4% 79.6% 0.001% 99.999%
99 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 34,900,000,000 20.6% 79.4% 0.001% 99.999%
100 250,000,000 100,000,000 350,000,000 35,250,000,000 20.8% 79.2% 0.001% 99.999%

QUOTED CHART NOTES:

You should always use Cron Stones for your Dream horse attempts.
Do not buy Cron Stones from a blacksmith; extract them from costumes.
This chart assumes you only use mats up to 100% towards any Dream horse.
– This is because mats are 1 to 1% up until 100%, but only 1 to 0.5% after
Chart doesn’t include the cost of Krogdalo’s Origin Stone
– This would add about 2.5m-3m per attempt if you want to be super accurate
Chart assumes all mats are bought with silver, including costumes for crons.
– Your actual silver cost will be lower if you obtain any of the mats yourself  

<- About half of all players will succeed by attempt # 22
This is also about how much it costs to buy a level 1 dream horse

Additional Info & Resources