Dream Horse Enhancement Chances were revealed in a patch on 17th June 2020.
Everyone starts with a 1% chance of success. Each additional failure adds an additional 0.2% to the Enhancement Chance.
*cries*
| Attempt | Enhancement Chance |
|---|---|
| 1 | 1.0% |
| 2 | 1.2% |
| 3 | 1.4% |
| 4 | 1.6% |
| 5 | 1.8% |
| 6 | 2.0% |
| 7 | 2.2% |
| 8 | 2.4% |
| 9 | 2.6% |
| 10 | 2.8% |
| 11 | 3.0% |
| 12 | 3.2% |
| 13 | 3.4% |
| 14 | 3.6% |
| 15 | 3.8% |
| 16 | 4.0% |
| 17 | 4.2% |
| 18 | 4.4% |
| 19 | 4.6% |
| 20 | 4.8% |
| 21 | 5.0% |
| 22 | 5.2% |
| 23 | 5.4% |
| 24 | 5.6% |
| 25 | 5.8% |
| 26 | 6.0% |
| 27 | 6.2% |
| 28 | 6.4% |
| 29 | 6.6% |
| 30 | 6.8% |
| 31 | 7.0% |
| 32 | 7.2% |
| 33 | 7.4% |
| 34 | 7.6% |
| 35 | 7.8% |
| 36 | 8.0% |
| 37 | 8.2% |
| 38 | 8.4% |
| 39 | 8.6% |
| 40 | 8.8% |
| 41 | 9.0% |
| 42 | 9.2% |
| 43 | 9.4% |
| 44 | 9.6% |
| 45 | 9.8% |
| 46 | 10.0% |
| 47 | 10.2% |
| 48 | 10.4% |
| 49 | 10.6% |
| 50 | 10.8% |
| 51 | 11.0% |
| 52 | 11.2% |
| 53 | 11.4% |
| 54 | 11.6% |
| 55 | 11.8% |
| 56 | 12.0% |
| 57 | 12.2% |
| 58 | 12.4% |
| 59 | 12.6% |
| 60 | 12.8% |
| 61 | 13.0% |
| 62 | 13.2% |
| 63 | 13.4% |
| 64 | 13.6% |
| 65 | 13.8% |
| 66 | 14.0% |
| 67 | 14.2% |
| 68 | 14.4% |
| 69 | 14.6% |
| 70 | 14.8% |
| 71 | 15.0% |
| 72 | 15.2% |
| 73 | 15.4% |
| 74 | 15.6% |
| 75 | 15.8% |
| 76 | 16.0% |
| 77 | 16.2% |
| 78 | 16.4% |
| 79 | 16.6% |
| 80 | 16.8% |
| 81 | 17.0% |
| 82 | 17.2% |
| 83 | 17.4% |
| 84 | 17.6% |
| 85 | 17.8% |
| 86 | 18.0% |
| 87 | 18.2% |
| 88 | 18.4% |
| 89 | 18.6% |
| 90 | 18.8% |
| 91 | 19.0% |
| 92 | 19.2% |
| 93 | 19.4% |
| 94 | 19.6% |
| 95 | 19.8% |
| 96 | 20.0% |
| 97 | 20.2% |
| 98 | 20.4% |
| 99 | 20.6% |
| 100 | 20.8% |
The “Current Success Rate” of upgrading a Courser to a Dream Horse looks very dim indeed!
If you are like most, you will probably obtain your Dream Horse at around a Failstack of 20. (Failstack = Increase Awakening Rate + 1)
According to one player’s math, 50% will obtain a Dream Horse before obtaining a failstack of 21. (Having a “Current Success Rate” of 5.2% and having failed at enhancement 21 times.)
Read details below.
Dream Horse Silver Cost Analysis
Do you have a few billion silver jingling around in yor pockets and feel lucky much? Time to obtain a dream horse!
Big thank you to u/Exvaris, who posted the following dream horse data in reddit. Read source reddit post.
| Attempt # | Cost in Mats | Cost in Crons | Total Cost of Attempt | Cumulative Cost | Success Chance | Failure Chance | Cumulative Fail Chance | Cumulative Success Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 500,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 600,000,000 | 600,000,000 | 1.0% | 99.0% | 99.0% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 950,000,000 | 1.2% | 98.8% | 97.8% | 2.2% |
| 3 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 1,300,000,000 | 1.4% | 98.6% | 96.4% | 3.6% |
| 4 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 1,650,000,000 | 1.6% | 98.4% | 94.9% | 5.1% |
| 5 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 2,000,000,000 | 1.8% | 98.2% | 93.2% | 6.8% |
| 6 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 2,350,000,000 | 2.0% | 98.0% | 91.3% | 8.7% |
| 7 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 2,700,000,000 | 2.2% | 97.8% | 89.3% | 10.7% |
| 8 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 3,050,000,000 | 2.4% | 97.6% | 87.2% | 12.8% |
| 9 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 3,400,000,000 | 2.6% | 97.4% | 84.9% | 15.1% |
| 10 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 3,750,000,000 | 2.8% | 97.2% | 82.5% | 17.5% |
| 11 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 4,100,000,000 | 3.0% | 97.0% | 80.1% | 19.9% |
| 12 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 4,450,000,000 | 3.2% | 96.8% | 77.5% | 22.5% |
| 13 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 4,800,000,000 | 3.4% | 96.6% | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| 14 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 5,150,000,000 | 3.6% | 96.4% | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| 15 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 5,500,000,000 | 3.8% | 96.2% | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| 16 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 5,850,000,000 | 4.0% | 96.0% | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| 17 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 6,200,000,000 | 4.2% | 95.8% | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| 18 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 6,550,000,000 | 4.4% | 95.6% | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| 19 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 6,900,000,000 | 4.6% | 95.4% | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| 20 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 7,250,000,000 | 4.8% | 95.2% | 55.4% | 44.6% |
| 21 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 7,600,000,000 | 5.0% | 95.0% | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 22 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 7,950,000,000 | 5.2% | 94.8% | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| 23 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 8,300,000,000 | 5.4% | 94.6% | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| 24 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 8,650,000,000 | 5.6% | 94.4% | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| 25 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 9,000,000,000 | 5.8% | 94.2% | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| 26 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 9,350,000,000 | 6.0% | 94.0% | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| 27 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 9,700,000,000 | 6.2% | 93.8% | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| 28 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 10,050,000,000 | 6.4% | 93.6% | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| 29 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 10,400,000,000 | 6.6% | 93.4% | 32.4% | 67.6% |
| 30 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 10,750,000,000 | 6.8% | 93.2% | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| 31 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 11,100,000,000 | 7.0% | 93.0% | 28.1% | 71.9% |
| 32 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 11,450,000,000 | 7.2% | 92.8% | 26.0% | 74.0% |
| 33 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 11,800,000,000 | 7.4% | 92.6% | 24.1% | 75.9% |
| 34 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 12,150,000,000 | 7.6% | 92.4% | 22.3% | 77.7% |
| 35 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 12,500,000,000 | 7.8% | 92.2% | 20.5% | 79.5% |
| 36 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 12,850,000,000 | 8.0% | 92.0% | 18.9% | 81.1% |
| 37 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 13,200,000,000 | 8.2% | 91.8% | 17.3% | 82.7% |
| 38 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 13,550,000,000 | 8.4% | 91.6% | 15.9% | 84.1% |
| 39 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 13,900,000,000 | 8.6% | 91.4% | 14.5% | 85.5% |
| 40 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 14,250,000,000 | 8.8% | 91.2% | 13.2% | 86.8% |
| 41 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 14,600,000,000 | 9.0% | 91.0% | 12.1% | 87.9% |
| 42 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 14,950,000,000 | 9.2% | 90.8% | 10.9% | 89.1% |
| 43 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 15,300,000,000 | 9.4% | 90.6% | 9.9% | 90.1% |
| 44 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 15,650,000,000 | 9.6% | 90.4% | 9.0% | 91.0% |
| 45 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 16,000,000,000 | 9.8% | 90.2% | 8.1% | 91.9% |
| 46 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 16,350,000,000 | 10.0% | 90.0% | 7.3% | 92.7% |
| 47 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 16,700,000,000 | 10.2% | 89.8% | 6.5% | 93.5% |
| 48 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 17,050,000,000 | 10.4% | 89.6% | 5.9% | 94.1% |
| 49 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 17,400,000,000 | 10.6% | 89.4% | 5.2% | 94.8% |
| 50 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 17,750,000,000 | 10.8% | 89.2% | 4.7% | 95.3% |
| 51 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 18,100,000,000 | 11.0% | 89.0% | 4.2% | 95.8% |
| 52 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 18,450,000,000 | 11.2% | 88.8% | 3.7% | 96.3% |
| 53 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 18,800,000,000 | 11.4% | 88.6% | 3.3% | 96.7% |
| 54 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 19,150,000,000 | 11.6% | 88.4% | 2.9% | 97.1% |
| 55 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 19,500,000,000 | 11.8% | 88.2% | 2.5% | 97.5% |
| 56 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 19,850,000,000 | 12.0% | 88.0% | 2.2% | 97.8% |
| 57 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 20,200,000,000 | 12.2% | 87.8% | 2.0% | 98.0% |
| 58 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 20,550,000,000 | 12.4% | 87.6% | 1.7% | 98.3% |
| 59 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 20,900,000,000 | 12.6% | 87.4% | 1.5% | 98.5% |
| 60 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 21,250,000,000 | 12.8% | 87.2% | 1.3% | 98.7% |
| 61 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 21,600,000,000 | 13.0% | 87.0% | 1.1% | 98.9% |
| 62 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 21,950,000,000 | 13.2% | 86.8% | 1.0% | 99.0% |
| 63 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 22,300,000,000 | 13.4% | 86.6% | 0.9% | 99.1% |
| 64 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 22,650,000,000 | 13.6% | 86.4% | 0.7% | 99.3% |
| 65 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 23,000,000,000 | 13.8% | 86.2% | 0.6% | 99.4% |
| 66 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 23,350,000,000 | 14.0% | 86.0% | 0.6% | 99.4% |
| 67 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 23,700,000,000 | 14.2% | 85.8% | 0.5% | 99.5% |
| 68 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 24,050,000,000 | 14.4% | 85.6% | 0.4% | 99.6% |
| 69 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 24,400,000,000 | 14.6% | 85.4% | 0.3% | 99.7% |
| 70 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 24,750,000,000 | 14.8% | 85.2% | 0.3% | 99.7% |
| 71 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 25,100,000,000 | 15.0% | 85.0% | 0.3% | 99.7% |
| 72 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 25,450,000,000 | 15.2% | 84.8% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| 73 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 25,800,000,000 | 15.4% | 84.6% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| 74 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 26,150,000,000 | 15.6% | 84.4% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| 75 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 26,500,000,000 | 15.8% | 84.2% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| 76 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 26,850,000,000 | 16.0% | 84.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| 77 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 27,200,000,000 | 16.2% | 83.8% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| 78 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 27,550,000,000 | 16.4% | 83.6% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| 79 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 27,900,000,000 | 16.6% | 83.4% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| 80 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 28,250,000,000 | 16.8% | 83.2% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| 81 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 28,600,000,000 | 17.0% | 83.0% | 0.04% | 99.96% |
| 82 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 28,950,000,000 | 17.2% | 82.8% | 0.04% | 99.96% |
| 83 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 29,300,000,000 | 17.4% | 82.6% | 0.03% | 99.97% |
| 84 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 29,650,000,000 | 17.6% | 82.4% | 0.02% | 99.98% |
| 85 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 30,000,000,000 | 17.8% | 82.2% | 0.02% | 99.98% |
| 86 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 30,350,000,000 | 18.0% | 82.0% | 0.02% | 99.98% |
| 87 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 30,700,000,000 | 18.2% | 81.8% | 0.01% | 99.99% |
| 88 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 31,050,000,000 | 18.4% | 81.6% | 0.01% | 99.99% |
| 89 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 31,400,000,000 | 18.6% | 81.4% | 0.01% | 99.99% |
| 90 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 31,750,000,000 | 18.8% | 81.2% | 0.01% | 99.99% |
| 91 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 32,100,000,000 | 19.0% | 81.0% | 0.01% | 99.99% |
| 92 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 32,450,000,000 | 19.2% | 80.8% | 0.005% | 99.995% |
| 93 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 32,800,000,000 | 19.4% | 80.6% | 0.004% | 99.996% |
| 94 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 33,150,000,000 | 19.6% | 80.4% | 0.003% | 99.997% |
| 95 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 33,500,000,000 | 19.8% | 80.2% | 0.002% | 99.998% |
| 96 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 33,850,000,000 | 20.0% | 80.0% | 0.002% | 99.998% |
| 97 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 34,200,000,000 | 20.2% | 79.8% | 0.002% | 99.998% |
| 98 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 34,550,000,000 | 20.4% | 79.6% | 0.001% | 99.999% |
| 99 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 34,900,000,000 | 20.6% | 79.4% | 0.001% | 99.999% |
| 100 | 250,000,000 | 100,000,000 | 350,000,000 | 35,250,000,000 | 20.8% | 79.2% | 0.001% | 99.999% |
QUOTED CHART NOTES:
You should always use Cron Stones for your Dream horse attempts.
Do not buy Cron Stones from a blacksmith; extract them from costumes.
This chart assumes you only use mats up to 100% towards any Dream horse.
– This is because mats are 1 to 1% up until 100%, but only 1 to 0.5% after
Chart doesn’t include the cost of Krogdalo’s Origin Stone
– This would add about 2.5m-3m per attempt if you want to be super accurate
Chart assumes all mats are bought with silver, including costumes for crons.
– Your actual silver cost will be lower if you obtain any of the mats yourself
<- About half of all players will succeed by attempt # 22
This is also about how much it costs to buy a level 1 dream horse
Additional Info & Resources
- Featured image credit: thank you Rose from Discord! (Natalia#1022)
- patch notes source
- Exvaris reddit post and chart
i am at my 44th attempt ready ** ********* *****
Ouch! So sorry about that bad luck! We need a pity system for Dream Horse Failstacks over 5… 10 at the most!!! Should I make a pity petition post and post to a GM? 🙂
Yes, you really should. XD I’m coming up on being close to that 44th attempt myself. It is just awful lol
Ouch! Sending a pity pat your way. 🙁
I got my Doom after 53th attemps. Good luck mah friend.
Ouches! Here’s some comfort food. *gives Carrot Soup*
no costume at cm in sea bro 🙁
I’ve got a busted horse. Now at 51 fs.
Ouch… 🙁
also at 41th attempt, this “Cumulative Success Chance” cant be right.
More Carrot Soup on the way! Sending better luck next time. 🙂
Cumulative chance is a meme in this context. It’s only relevant before you click your first attempt.
The math is right. The cumulative success chance is the probability that you would have obtained the dream mount by that attempt.Out of 100 people, by fail 41, 89/100 people would have gotten their dream mount.
im new on bdo. its my first month. got full tet boss gear in first week and farming for 3-3.5 week wasted all of my gold for this sh’ty horse im at 35 a. rate and still fails. I saw a streamer getting it with 7 and saw other one with 22 and i thought i can get it too cuz game was giving lots of fruit stuff it was okay to start i get like first 8-9 rate freely without using any gold but it just meanless now im gonna use more gold than lv30 dream horse if i… Read more »
Sorry you are having trouble with it. I wouldn’t mind one bit if they removed a few of the RNG systems in BDO, like this one!
Here I am only on my 22rd attempt, technically 23rd because I only tried once before failstacks for this became a thing. (I rarely try because I get bored doing the kama quests) the really scary thing is trying to reach the next tier.
True! It sounds like this is a walk in the park compared to the next tier. 😛
Currently at 34 attempts…
YOU CAN DO IT!!! 🙂
Thanks for the guide, coming up at 19 myself. Here’s to hoping!!
Good luck! 🙂
Hi – just got my dream horse this morning after 11 tries (failstacks) it was a fantastic way to start my day
Hello and grats on your Dream Horse!!! 😀
-.- wow i needed 58 Clicks to get a Doom one now i see i could buy 2 Horses ouuuch
That’s just… 58? Don’t faint! Keep fighting!
I think after the cost to buy it on market is passed, the FS should increase exponentially….
That would be helpful!
Im on 60 FS, I‘ll keep goong to 100 Fs+ *pog*
Ooouch! Dream a lil dream… but how now? 🙂
Oh no, 48fs and keep going. maybe needed 50 tries 🤔
Ack! Well, 50 has to be the lucky number then!
I’m on +64 so I’m really unlucky with this horse and now I have a free one :c
Ack, 64 should be a shoo-in for a Dream Horse!
On attempt number 57 today… kill me.
Fighting! Fighting! Rah Rah! Next one, I promise. 😀
I got my 1st dine on the 3rd attempt, got the 2nd free one, and thought would make a 3rd for free money, I’m on my 63th stack lol XD
Interesting! You’re way over due now for some luck dust. 🙂